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  • Statistics In Transition

 

Research Article | 20-November-2017

OPTION FOR PREDICTING THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S FOREIGN TRADE TIME SERIES AS COMPONENTS IN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This paper analyses the time series observed for the foreign trade of the Czech Republic (CR) and predictions in such series with the aid of the SARIMA and transfer-function models. Our goal is to find models suitable for describing the time series of the exports and imports of goods and services from/to the CR and to subsequently use these models for predictions in quarterly estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) component resources and utilization. As a result we get suitable models

Luboš Marek, Stanislava Hronová, Richard Hindls

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 18 , ISSUE 3, 481–500

Research paper | 01-November-2017

OPERATIONALIZATION AND ESTIMATION OF BALANCED DEVELOPMENT INDEX FOR POLAND 1999-2016

Andrzej K. Koźmiński, Adam Noga, Katarzyna Piotrowska, Krzysztof Zagórski

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 16 , ISSUE 3, 461–487

Article | 30-July-2021

A computed tomographic, mixed dentition, space analysis comparison

Introduction: A considered space analysis aims to predict the combined mesiodistal widths of unerupted permanent canine and premolars. A miscalculation can lead to the application of inadequate and irreversible treatments. Objective: To assess the level of agreement between predictions generated by three methods (Moyers’ predictive tables at the 50th and 75th percentiles and Tanaka-Johnston’s equations) on the sum of unerupted teeth compared with measurements derived from cone beam

Luís Queijo, Francisco do Vale, Ana Corte-Real, Sónia Alves

Australasian Orthodontic Journal, Volume 32 , ISSUE 2, 199–205

Article | 30-July-2021

Application of Pont's index to a Pakistani population: a digital stereomicroscopic study

large and small arch length groups in the mandibular arch. Pont’s index predictions were consistently less than the actual interpremolar and intermolar arch widths for both genders. The dissimilarity in the predictions for interpremolar width averaged -4.33 mm for males and -4.21 mm for females while the intermolar width averages were -4.93 mm for males and -4.92 mm for females. Conclusion: The results indicated that Pont’s index should not be applied to the Pakistani population

Fazal Shahid, Mohammad Khursheed Alam, Mohd Fadhli Khamis, Grant Clement Townsend

Australasian Orthodontic Journal, Volume 33 , ISSUE 2, 236–248

Research Article | 27-February-2017

Review of the effectiveness of predictive models for mesothelioma to identify lessons for asbestos-related policy

Predictions of future cases of asbestos-related disease have been undertaken at a national level to inform government policy and planning for future health needs. In general, we can separate the methods used to predict future cases of mesothelioma into models that use a) direct or b) indirect estimates of asbestos exposure. Direct estimates are those that have been derived mostly for occupationally exposed cohorts, where airborne fibre levels were measured over time. Indirect estimates tend to

Alison Reid

Evidence Base, Volume 2016 , ISSUE 3, 1–19

Research Article | 27-December-2017

ANALYSIS OF DIESEL AND RAPESEED METHYL ESTER PROPERTIES IN CEUP FUEL PIPELINE USING FREQUENCY DEPENDENT DAMPING MODEL

is presented for both diesel and biodiesel fuel Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME). Quantitative analysis of developed model confirms that model predictions are quite realistic and accurate across range of operating conditions of diesel engine.

Qaisar Hayat, Fan Liyun, Song Enzhe, Xiuzhen Ma, Tian Bingqi, Naeim Farouk

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems, Volume 7 , ISSUE 2, 498–518

Article | 15-September-2020

A comparison of area level and unit level small area models in the presence of linkage errors

In Official Statistics, interest in data integration has grown enormously, but the effect of integration procedures on statistical analysis has not yet been sufficiently developed. Data integration is not an error-free procedure and linkage errors, as false links and missed links can invalidate standard estimates. Recently, increasing attention has been paid to the effect of linkage errors on the statistical analyses and on statistical predictions. Recently, methods to adjust the unit level

Loredana Di Consiglio, Tiziana Tuoto

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 21 , ISSUE 4, 103–122

Research Article | 01-June-2017

APPLICATION OF RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK TO PREDICT EXCHANGE RATE WITH
FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

 presented to it. The model learning algorithm uses a diverse data set for training so as to adapt itself quickly for new exchange rate data. We apply the RBFNN to panel data of the exchange rates (USD/EUR, JPN/USD, USD/GBP, USD/CHY) are examined and optimized to be used for time-series predictions, some experiments testified the proposed method is effective and feasible.

AI SUN, JUI-FANG CHANG

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems, Volume 10 , ISSUE 2, 308–326

Article | 31-July-2018

PREDICTION AND VALIDATION FOR THE AERODYNAMIC NOISE OF HIGH-SPEED TRAIN POWER CAR

the transient model. Considering the transient flow field, the far-field aerodynamic noise generated by the power car was finally derived from Lighthill-Curle theory. It was validated by means of on-line tests that have been performed along a real high-speed railway line. Through comparisons between simulations and measurements, it is shown that the simulation model gives reliable aerodynamic noise predictions. We foresee numerous applications for modeling and control of the aerodynamic noise in

Shi-jie Jiang, Song Yang, Dan Wu, Bang-Chun Wen

Transport Problems, Volume 13 , ISSUE 2, 91–102

Research Article | 13-June-2021

A Bayes algorithm for model compatibility and comparison of ARMA(p,q) models

paper also compares different compatible models through the posterior predictive loss criterion in order to recommend the most appropriate one. For a numerical illustration of the above, data on the Indian gross domestic product growth rate at constant prices are considered. Differencing the data once prior to conducting the analysis ensured their stationarity. Retrospective short-term predictions of the data are provided based on the final recommended model. The considered methodology is expected

Praveen Kumar Tripathi, Rijji Sen, S.K. Upadhyay

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 22 , ISSUE 2, 95–123

research-article | 08-October-2021

A PROPOSAL TO FACILITATE MANDATORY BRIDGE LOAD TESTS WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSES USING A DIGITAL DATA AGGREGATION PLATFORM

numerical values assigned to each of the connections between neurons, including bias neurons. In the second step of computations - on the basis of the obtained set of optimal weight matrices - the predictions of each network with respect to all bridge structures were calculated and compared with the actual in-situ results. The training examples were therefore then treated as a separate validation set - so in this analysis the values of the network weights were constant (taken from previous step). The

Piotr OWERKO, Jerzy KAŁUŻA, Marek WAZOWSKI

Architecture, Civil Engineering, Environment, Volume 14 , ISSUE 3, 69–78

Research Article

External Threat as Coercion

. Therefore, experiments on strong and weak indirect coercion are run and are compared to new and previous experiments on strong and weak direct coercion. Theoretically grounded predictions are derived and tested for those structures.

Pamela Emanuelson, David Willer

Journal of Social Structure, Volume 16 , ISSUE 1, 1–16

research-article | 10-January-2020

Predicting Patterns of Exchange in Economic Exchange Networks*

exchange predict, or even consider, exchange patterns. Importantly, those that do are computationally expensive and thus are restricted to small networks (e.g., ESL, EVT and Reciprocity). The exchange pattern method (EPM) presented in this section reduces the complexity necessary to compute predictions and thus is applicable to networks of any size. EPM gains its parsimony by treating the excludability of a node as a binary measure; hence, a node is either excludible or it is not. We then apply

Casey Borch, C. Dudley Girard

Journal of Social Structure, Volume 10 , ISSUE 1, 1–29

Article | 03-March-2021

Bankruptcy prediction of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Poland based on the LDA and SVM methods

. Since the Altman Z-Score model was devised, numerous studies on bankruptcy prediction have been written. Most of them involve the application of traditional methods, including linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic regression and probit analysis. However, most recent studies in the area of bankruptcy prediction focus on more advanced methods, such as case-based reasoning, genetic algorithms and neural networks. In this paper, the effectiveness of LDA and SVM predictions were compared. A sample

Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 22 , ISSUE 1, 179–195

Research paper | 01-November-2017

COVARIATE SELECTION FOR SMALL AREA ESTIMATION IN REPEATED SAMPLE SURVEYS

If the implementation of small area estimation methods to multiple editions of a repeated sample survey is considered, then the question arises which covariates to use in the models. Applying standard model selection procedures independently to the different editions of the survey may identify different sets of covariates for each edition. If the small area predictions are sensitive to the different models, this is undesirable in official statistics since monitoring change over time of

Jan A. van den Brakel, Bart Buelens

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 16 , ISSUE 4, 523–540

Article | 24-December-2021

LNG MARKET AND FLEET ANALYSIS

analysis of the several aspects and patterns of the trade has been performed; the results obtained can enable prediction of the market situation for the future. From the data analysis and predictions of the LNG market, continuous growth in the following years is expected, which linked to an increase of the LNG fleet and number of importing countries. Research has shown that new propulsion alternatives such as MEGI and XDF are appearing on the market as the first choice for new builds, while steam

Tatjana STANIVUK, Josip MAHIĆ, Ladislav STAZIĆ, Hana PERDIĆ-LUKAČEVIĆ

Transport Problems, Volume 16 , ISSUE 4, 173–183

Article | 06-July-2017

A TWO-COMPONENT NORMAL MIXTURE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FAY-HERRIOT MODEL

This article considers a robust hierarchical Bayesian approach to deal with random effects of small area means when some of these effects assume extreme values, resulting in outliers. In the presence of outliers, the standard Fay-Herriot model, used for modeling area-level data, under normality assumptions of random effects may overestimate the random effects variance, thus providing less than ideal shrinkage towards the synthetic regression predictions and inhibiting the borrowing of

Adrijo Chakraborty, Gauri Sankar Datta, Abhyuday Mandal

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 17 , ISSUE 1, 67–90

research-article | 07-July-2020

Dependence of the filled-space illusion on the size and location of contextual distractors

fixation of the gaze in the filled part of the stimulus causes a much stronger illusory effect than fixation in an empty spatial interval (Piaget and Bang, 1961). There are currently few known explanations of the Oppel-Kundt illusion. Moreover, most of the explanations are inherently qualitative and thus, are unable to make predictions that can be unambiguously verified in experiments. The existing explanations are also limited in that, as a rule, they concern only a subset of features of a given

Vilius Marma, Aleksandr Bulatov, Natalija Bulatova

Acta Neurobiologiae Experimentalis, Volume 80 , ISSUE 2, 139–159

Article | 20-December-2020

Modelling bid-ask spread conditional distributions using hierarchical correlation reconstruction

expected value, but also the variance to determine the uncertainty of the prediction, or we can use the entire distribution for, e.g. more accurate further calculations or generating random values. 10-fold cross-validation log-likelihood tests were conducted for 22 DAX companies, leading to very accurate predictions, especially when individual models were used for each company, as significant differences were found between their behaviours. An additional advantage of using this methodology is that it

Jarosław Duda, Henryk Gurgul, Robert Syrek

Statistics in Transition New Series, Volume 21 , ISSUE 5, 99–118

Article | 05-June-2013

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PRESSURE WAVE MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR HP FUEL PIPELINE OF CEUP AT VARIOUS OPERATING CONDITIONS

each mathematical model at various operating conditions. From analytical and quantitative analysis it has been concluded that viscous damped mathematical model predicts more accurately as compared to rest of models specially at all combinations of cam rotational speeds and cam angles of 700rpm, 1100rpm and 6°CaA, 10°CaA and 14°CaA respectively. Damped mathematical model predictions have been found relatively more precise at cam angles of 6°CaA and cam rotational speeds of 900rpm and

Qaisar Hayat, Fan Li-Yun, Xiu-Zhen Ma, Tian Bingqi

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems, Volume 6 , ISSUE 3, 1077–1101

Original Paper | 24-February-2017

Inability of shear-wave elastography to distinguish malignant from benign prostate tissue – a comparison of biopsy, whole-mount sectioning and shear-wave elastography

Aim: This study was designed to assess the possible usefulness of shear-wave elastography in differentiating between benign and malignant tissue in prostate neoplasia. Patients and methods: A total of 120 prostate tissue samples were obtained from 10 patients treated by radical prostatectomy and investigated pre-operatively by ultrasound elastography followed by directed biopsy. After resection, whole-mount sectioning and histological examination was performed. The predictions based on shear

Markus Porsch, Claudia Görner, Johann Jakob Wendler, Uwe-Bernd Liehr, Anke Lux, Sandra Siedentopf, Martin Schostak, Maciej Pech

Journal of Ultrasonography, Volume 16 , ISSUE 67, 348–358

Research Article | 05-July-2017

Changes in the frequency and characteristics of children diagnosed with autistic disorder in two Norwegian cohorts: 1992 and 2009

compared with children with IQ values of less than 50 without genetic syndromes (3.5 years).Conclusions:The increase in the number of children diagnosed with AD is consistent with findings from international studies. Contrary to predictions, the age at diagnosis was not reduced over time. A higher proportion of children with IQ values in the average range in the latter cohort may have contributed to this. A delayed diagnosis of AD among children with genetic syndromes may indicate that early autism

Sidsel Romhus, Gyro Aas Herder, Elisabeth Grindheim, Synnve Schjølberg, Patricia Howlin

Scandinavian Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychology, Volume 5 , ISSUE 1, 3–12

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